NASA has raised concerns over the trajectory of Asteroid 2024 YR4, revealing that the probability of it striking Earth in 2032 has increased to 3.1%—equivalent to 1 in 32 odds. While the asteroid is not large enough to cause global extinction, its impact could still be devastating, potentially wiping out an entire city, according to a report by LiveScience.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, measures approximately 177 feet (54 meters) in diameter—about the size of a multi-story building.
Simulation Depicts Catastrophic Impact Scenario
A computer-generated simulation of the asteroid’s potential impact has gone viral online, illustrating the possible destruction it could cause. The chilling animation, created by 3D artist Alvaro Gracia Montoya, depicts a massive space rock colliding with Earth and decimating an entire metropolis.
An X (formerly Twitter) user who shared the video captioned it:
"NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city."
Despite the increasing probability, planetary defense experts urge the public not to panic.
Experts Reassure Public: ‘Chances Are It Will Miss’
Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, told AFP that while the rising probability is concerning, it is not yet a reason for alarm.
"Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy. But historically, as we gather more data, the probability will rise before dropping to zero."
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued an alert in January 2025 after the impact probability surpassed 1%. Since then, the estimate has fluctuated but continues to trend upward.
NASA’s latest calculations place the potential impact date on December 22, 2032. However, astronomers emphasize that there is still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. Additionally, there is a 0.3% chance that YR4 could strike the Moon instead.
Future Observations Could Lower Risk
Although NASA is closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4, experts believe that continued observations will refine its trajectory and likely rule out the possibility of impact altogether.
"As we track the asteroid's orbit with more precision, the likelihood of impact will almost certainly decrease," an expert from NASA’s Near-Earth Object (NEO) Program stated.
While the current risk assessment remains elevated, scientists worldwide continue to study the asteroid’s movement, with additional findings expected in the coming months.
