UBS has downgraded its outlook on U.S. equities, warning that several key drivers behind years of market outperformance are beginning to weaken. Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, lowered American equities to “benchmark” within a fully invested global portfolio. The strategist cited rising risks linked to a softening U.S. dollar, elevated valuations and policy uncertainty in Washington.
Dollar Weakness a Central Concern
According to UBS, currency risk is emerging as a major headwind. The bank forecasts the euro climbing to $1.22 by the end of the first quarter and sees what it describes as “asymmetric structural downside risks” for the U.S. dollar.
Historically, UBS noted, a 10% drop in the dollar’s trade-weighted index has resulted in U.S. equities underperforming by around 4% in unhedged terms.
Global markets have outperformed U.S. stocks so far in 2026. The MSCI World ex-U.S. index has gained roughly 8% this year, while the S&P 500 has remained largely flat. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has risen 17% year to date, and the Stoxx Europe 600 is up about 7%, reflecting a rotation of capital away from American equities.
Buybacks Losing Momentum
UBS also highlighted corporate buybacks as another pillar of U.S. market strength that is now losing momentum. The bank said the U.S. buyback yield is currently roughly in line with global peers, reducing what had previously been a key advantage in supporting earnings per share growth and investor flows.
The combined shareholder yield from dividends and buybacks in the U.S. is now about half that of Europe, according to the bank.
“The buybacks yield is no longer exceptional and this had been an important driver of funds flow, EPS and valuation,” Garthwaite wrote.
Valuations and Policy Uncertainty Add Pressure
Valuations are adding to UBS’s cautious stance. The bank calculates that the sector-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks stands 35% above international peers, compared with an average premium of roughly 4% since 2010.
Around 60% of sectors are trading not only at higher multiples than global counterparts but also above their own historical premiums.
Policy developments under President Donald Trump are also contributing to market uncertainty. UBS pointed to shifting tariff policies, proposals to cap credit card interest rates, potential restrictions on private equity investment in housing, renewed scrutiny of drug pricing, and suggestions to limit dividends and buybacks for defense companies.
Not an Outright Bearish Call
Despite the downgrade, UBS stopped short of issuing a fully bearish outlook. Garthwaite noted that U.S. markets and the broader economy often benefit more than peers during the early stages of potential asset bubbles.
The bank also expects artificial intelligence adoption in the U.S. to outpace most other major economies, with the possible exception of China, which could help sustain earnings growth across key sectors.
UBS strategist Sean Simonds set a year-end target of 7,500 for the S&P 500. That compares with an average forecast of 7,629 among 14 leading strategists, according to a CNBC Pro survey.
